Search results for " change-point."

Change-point estimation in piecewise constant regression models and extensions

2015

Evaluating the performance of a new picking algorithm based on the variance piecewise constant models

2021

In this paper, a new picking algorithm for the automatic seismogram onset time determination is tested on a dataset of simulated waveforms. We aim at capturing the variations in the performance due to some characteristics of both the seismic event and its detection, which in turn affect some characteristics of the waveforms. We therefore simulate seismic events with different magnitude, and assumed to be detected with different distances from the nearest seismic station. Our tests permit to highlight the scenarios most suitable for our algorithm.

The Legacy and the Tyranny of Time: Exit and Re-Entry of Sovereigns to International Capital Markets

2018

We use a novel continuous-time Weibull model (without and) with a change-point in the duration dependence parameter to investigate the duration of the exit and re-entry of sovereigns to international capital markets. Relying on annual data for a large panel of countries over the period 1970-2011, we find that, as the reputation of debtor countries as good (bad) borrowers solidifies over time, those episodes are more likely to end - i.e. the "legacy of time". Debtor countries can take advantage of the "benefit of doubt" of creditors during short exit spells. However, when exits are long and the reputation as a bad borrower emerges, no more "complacency" makes it more difficult for them to bo…

Booms, Busts and normal times in the housing market

2015

We assess the existence of duration dependence in the likelihood of an end in housing booms, busts, and normal times. Using data for 20 industrial countries and a continuous-time Weibull duration model, we find evidence of positive duration dependence suggesting that housing market cycles have become longer over the last decades. Then, we extend the baseline Weibull model and allow for the presence of a change-point in the duration dependence parameter.We show that positive duration dependence is present in booms and busts that last less than 26 quarters, but that does not seem to be the case for longer phases of the housing market cycle. For normal times, no evidence of change-points is fo…

The Decline in U.S. Output Growth Volatility: A Wavelet Analysis

2013

The aim of the paper is to determine whether or not the volatility of the growth rate of US output has changed in the period since late 1940's, and to attribute a precise date, if possible, to any such change. By applying the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) to the annualized quarter-to quarter output growth series, we can test the homogeneity of the variance on a scale by scale basis without needing to fit a parametric model to the observed time series. A version of the Inclan and Tiao (1994) Normalised and Centered Cumulative Sum of Squares test, adapted to wavelet analysis, leads us to reject the null hypothesis of constant variance in the two levels of decomposition of the highest resol…